Pennsylvania likely posted the first y-o-y decline in natural gas output in September in over a decade.

The recent rise in natural gas prices has led to a modest increase in drilling activity and a less dire outlook than we shared last month.

This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well.

Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard

These interactive presentations contain the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 9,837 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing from 2010 onward, through September.

Total production

Pennsylvanian natural gas production fell in September by almost 1 Bcf/d, to ~18.5 Bcf/d (after upcoming revisions). In the first 9 months of this year, only 417 horizontal wells were completed in the state, well below the same period last year (537).

Supply Projection dashboard

The horizontal rig count has ticked up by 2 to 19 during this month (source: Baker Hughes rig count), which has improved the outlook for the basin. Where we projected a drop to below 14 Bcf by the end of the decade in our previous post (with ~17 rigs), we now project a more moderate decline, with output not falling below 16 Bcf/d [see our Supply Projection dashboard]

Natural gas outlook in Pennsylvania, based on current drilling activity and productivity (hz wells only)

A major factor behind the increase in activity has been the rise in natural gas prices, as the Henry Hub benchmark almost doubled since June ($1.63 / Mcf) to $3.00/Mcf at the time of writing.

Well productivity

Average well productivity is still creeping upward, as you will find in the “Well quality” tab. The 382 wells that started producing this year with already 2 months on production peaked at a rate of 16 thousand Mcf/d, significantly higher than earlier vintages.

Top operators

In the final tab (“Top operators”), the top 8 natural gas producers in Pennsylvania can be found. EQT, Cabot and Chesapeake are the clear leaders in the state, but their output has not drastically changed in the last few quarters.

Advanced Insights

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

This “Ultimate Recovery” overview reveals the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a particular year.

Finally

A Happy Thanksgiving to you all!

Early next week we will have a post on all covered states in the US.

Production data is subject to revisions.

Sources

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • FracFocus.org

Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3q2rfvd

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