After several months of declines, natural gas output in the Haynesville is bound to start rising again
Drilling activity is higher than even in the Marcellus, while initial production rates are higher.
This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 5,735 horizontal wells in the Haynesville that started producing from 2007, through September 2020.
Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard
Natural gas production came in just above 10 Bcf/d in September (after upcoming revisions), down by 1 Bcf/d since May, but it has more than doubled since 4 years ago.
Supply Projection dashboard
Although it still produces less than half of its bigger cousin the Marcellus (~25 Bcf/d), drilling activity is now higher here (41 v 24 hz rigs, according to the Baker Hughes rig count). At this level, we see significant further growth in the years to come, all else being equal:
Output may grow to over 15 Bcf/d by the end of the decade in this scenario. You can develop and save your own scenarios by changing rig count and productivity assumptions in this dashboard (“Supply Projection”) our subscription service.
In the final tab (“Top operators”), the leading 5 natural gas producers in the Haynesville can be seen. Chesapeake went from the number 1 to the number 5 in the last 2 years, mostly due to output increases by its competitors.
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate Recovery” overview reveals the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a particular year.
Although initial production rates are higher here than in the Marcellus, on average, the hyperbolic declines are also steeper due to a lower b-factor. As you can see by extrapolating these curves, newer wells are trending towards an EUR of about 10–12 Bcf. More recent data can be seen by grouping the wells by quarter or month of first production.
This is our last post of the year. The ShaleProfile Team wishes you a Merry Christmas and a far saver and happier 2021!
Production data is subject to revisions.
For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- The Louisiana Department of Natural Resources
- Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports.
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